Ljubljana, 15 March (STA) - The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD), the government's macroeconomic forecaster, has upgraded its GDP growth forecast for this year from 3.9% to 5.1% and from 3.2% to 3.8% for next year. In 2020, the Slovenian economy is expected to expand by 3.2%.
The government think-tank expects the rapid export growth to continue but gradually slow down in the coming years. After last year's 10.6% growth, exports should increase by 9.2% this year, by 7.5% in 2019, and by 6.8% in 2020.
The import growth will exceed the export growth but foreign trade will continue to positively contribute to the economic growth.
Private consumption, which was up by 3.2% last year, is expected to rise by 3.6% this year, by 3% next year and by another 2% in 2020.
Government spending will meanwhile climb by 1.7% this year, by 1.4% in 2019 and by 1.1% by 2020.
The growth of gross investment this year will be 0.3 percentage points lower than last year at 10%. In the next couple of years the growth will slow down to 8.5% and 7.5%, respectively.
IMAD also expects a strong rise in nominal wages. After last year's 2.7% rise in gross wages, this year the gross monthly earnings are to increase by 4%, next year by 4.5% and in 2020 by 4.3%.
In real terms, last year's 1.3% wage growth will be followed by a 2.5% increase this year, a 2.6% rise in 2019 and a 2% in 2020.
The registered unemployment rate, reaching 9.5% last year, is expected to drop to 8% this year, to 7.2% next year and to 6.7% in 2020.
Presenting the forecast to the press, IMAD acting director Boštjan Vasle said that yesterday's resignation would not have a major effect on the macroeconomic situation in Slovenia in the short term.
The latest forecast took into account that this year is an election year, with the assumption that there will be no major economic policy measures which would significantly affect the economy, he added.